Column: Why Ricciardo's Renault move is make or break

Daniel Ricciardo sent shockwaves through the F1 market on Friday when he decided to leave Red Bull behind and join Renault at the end of the 2018 season. Few predicted that the Australian would be leaving the energy drink squad, while even fewer believed he would end up at Enstone.

However, it is now a reality, and Ricciardo will be departing the team he took two pole positions, 29 podiums and seven race wins with. But what will his move to Renault mean for him, and how could it have an impact on his future?

There is no doubting that Renault is a team on the way up. When it re-joined the sport in 2016 it was a shadow of the team it is now. Having taken over from Lotus late on in 2015, the R.S. 16 was just a mere evolution of Lotus' car that ran throughout the 2015 season.

Just eight points were scored in 2016, before a major boost came in 2017. The French team racked up 57 points, finishing three positions higher than where it ended in 2016. And at the halfway point of the 2018 season, Renault has picked up 25 more points than it did in the entirety of the 2017 season.

All of this shows Ricciardo clearly that the team has the resources to improve its place in the standings year to year. Currently, it is in a battle for fourth place, the 'best of the rest', but what happens when (or 'if', if you're sceptical) it establishes itself as the fourth fastest team?

In recent years, we have seen that when a driver from a top team has to start a race from the back of the field, it makes its way past the backmarkers pretty quickly, before encountering the challenge of closing the gap to the top 5.

Something similar can be said to Renault's development. It is making gains on the backmarkers and midfield teams, but once it clears them, there will be a big gap to close in to the remaining teams ahead, most notably Mercedes and Ferrari.

The two aforementioned teams should be expected to be title contenders next year, but will Renault's challenge of conquering Red Bull prove easier? Red Bull will be running with Honda power in 2019, with the Japanese manufacturer still holding a poor reputation.

Should Renault be able to match Red Bull next year, the move will be seen as an instant success. But the good thing for Ricciardo is that he doesn't hold the expectation of beating his former team - so the possibility that he could is a bonus.

He will also be coming up against Nico Hulkenberg, which is already set to be the most intriguing intra-team battle in the paddock. Hulkenberg has already embedded himself in the team for the long-term, and Ricciardo will be a big boost to the squad.

While Ricciardo may not be expected to get the better of Red Bull, it would reflect incredibly poorly on him should Hulkenberg beat the honey badger. Ricciardo is seeking a new challenge, but having somewhat held his own against highly rated Max Verstappen, it would be astonishing should Hulkenberg beat Ricciardo.

A two-year deal has also been penned, which is a positive - Ricciardo has the opportunity to prove his worth at a new team and showcase his abilities in adapting to a fresh situation, all the while being available for the 2021 market, where there will be plenty of top seats available.

The move is one of the most interesting decisions we've seen in recent years, and there's no doubt that there is plenty of risks involved. But at 29 years of age, this is it for Ricciardo. When his Renault contract is set to expire in 2020, he'll be 31. And whether he is hoping to get world championship success with Renault or simply strengthen his position as an attractive driver to bring in, it will prove to be his ultimate career-defining move.

Rindtchamp

Posts: 304

I wish him the best, but it sucks that neither Merc nor Ferrari would give him a seat as it would put pressure on their goldenboys. They'd rather have a lackey #2 driver instead. Shame, we all lose out on what could have been awesome.

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• Aug 4 2018 - 18:50

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